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How Morocco Won Western Sahara at the Negotiating Table, Not on the Battlefield

“Since 1970, Western Sahara, perched on the Atlantic coast, has been a combat zone. On one side, Morocco has steadily consumed more and more territory and relocated many thousands of its own citizens to populate it. On the other, an insurgent movement called the Polisario Front, representing the area’s ethnic Sahrawi population, has been pushed further and further into the open desert, propped up by a foreign sponsor in Algeria that has never had the strength to truly turn the tide. Today, the Western Sahara conflict appears to be drawing to a close. After fifty-five years of continuous asymmetric warfare, Morocco is poised to achieve the victory it has pursued for so long. After years of accumulating clout and diplomatic momentum, Morocco has managed to put before the Polisario Front an offer that is exceedingly difficult to refuse. If the Polisario raises the white flag, it will not merely have agreed to end the independence movement that its fathers and grandfathers fought for. It will be sending a very clear signal to the rest of the world about how the business of peace gets done in the twenty-first century.” SOURCE: War Fronts

SOURCE: WarFronts on Youtube

My entire life, the African coast just south of Morocco was always nebulous spot of the map. Sometimes it was referred to as Western Sahara, sometimes Spanish Sahara, maybe shown as controlled by Morocco, but on many global maps, this is one of those infamous places that shows up blank with “no data.” What is the situation is this mysterious place? This video gives not only a solid overview of the historical background, but is the 2026 update that this ambiguity is now solidifying into a new reality; internationally more states are recognizing new situation with this now being recognized as a part of Moroccan territory.

Since 1973, the ethnic Sahwari have been fighting for independence under the banner of the Polisario Front, but when Spain pulled out in 1975 after a century of colonization, Morocco moved into that power vacuum. The Sahwari are a nomadic people in the western Sahara, meaning they control any large population centers with a scattered small population away from the coast in the desert. The 20th and 21 century economic geography has not been to the advantage of traditional nomadic cultures to maintain political prominence as urbanization and industrialization advantages sedentary, specialized societies. Morocco has controlled that majority of the old Spanish Saharan colony, but exerting control over the expansive desert with insurgents is difficult.

Morocco is now using diplomatic means to fully secure all of this territory under their control. With Algeria as the Polisario Front’s only real backer, Morocco has been working on getting recognition from France, Spain, and the United States with some concessions. Morocco now has most countries recognizing it’s sovereignty claims and is offering amnesty to the Sahwaris living in exile to return. While not everything is completely finalized, this looks like a new status quo and the 55 year war front will be closed.

TAGS: Morocco, Middle East and North Africa, war, conflict, political, sovereignty.

QUESTIONS TO PONDER: Why was Morocco able to exert more political power in these lands than the Polisario Front? What does this tell us about political power in the 21st century?

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War at Different Scales

SOURCE: RealLifeLore on YouTube

A geographic concept that becomes incredibly important to understanding during war or any armed conflict is the concept of scale. The same issue looks quite different when you see the issue primarily through a local lens, national lens, regional lens, or a global lens. Elements of a war operate of all of these scales and jump scales.

Let’s first take the example of the Syrian Civil War as a template for seeing war operate on various scales. The Syrian Civil War began with the regional spark of the Arab Spring, but it took a different form in Syria because of the distinct national geographic characteristics. The urban warfare in cities like Aleppo and Damascus were intensely local, but regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran were taking sides that favored their particular geopolitical objectives. Then global powers like the United States, Russia, and China were also involved as this local war, with regional impacts, started to have global ramifications.

Given that a war operates on many scales, a geographic analysis of any conflict will require us to consider so many thematic factors such as the historical, political, economic, cultural, demographic, and environmental context. Even after considering all that, we’ll need to look at those issues at a variety of scales to understand the full complexity of the situation. Actions that might not make sense at one scale often have a logic that is understandable at a different scale.

TAGS: Middle East, Iran, political, war.

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Changes in Iran

Map showing the countries bombed by Iran in the days after the death of Khamenei. SOURCE: CNN

In writing this with the assumption that you’ve all seen the headlines about the US/Israeli strikes on Iran that led to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Post of my students are currently asking “now what?” Things are still murky as I’m writing this, but the news often will make no sense without the regional geographic context. Understanding the Sunni/Shia divide is vital to understanding why Iran, after being attacked, bombed at least a dozen countries including many other Muslim countries. They are expending their weapons without an ability to replenish their supplies and facing. They’ve threatened to attack any ship going through the Straits of Hormuz, and which doesn’t mean much if we don’t understand what a choke point is, and why their are economic vital, and geopolitically strategic. Fellow Gulf countries like Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are seeing this as a closure as a maritime crisis that will profoundly economically damage them.

The economic and political importance of a choke point is highlighted in a crisis that closes it. SOURCE: CNBC

Nine U.S. bases in the Middle East have been bombed in drone attacks and while it is hard to assess in “the fog of war,” satellite imagery shows us the extent of the damage. Of course this has many domestic ramifications in the United States that are significant, but as a geographic analysis of this situation pulls the focus more to Middle Eastern impacts, starting with the question,
“who will be in charge of Iran two months from now?” There are many possibilities ranging from the mullahs staying in charge, to the son of the Shah (Rezi Pahlavi) being installed in the future. Prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution that installed the Ruhollah Khomeini. The current regime has been the largest state sponsor of terror and has been the greatest source of regional destabilization. They’ve funded Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and various other Shi’ite militia groups in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere.

The ABC video here is a good “need to know” primer for March 4, 2026…but the details will fade in time.

The news of the next few month will shape the coming decades and the possibilities are still wide open. The Caspian Report has produced good geopolitical analysis over the years, so this is their latest video (below)

TAGS: Middle East, Iran, political, war.

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The Geography of Military Operations

Geography is the stage on which the play of History unfolds.  As a kid, I loved studying the great wards of history and—not surprisingly—I was drawn to the maps that showed flanking maneuvers, bottlenecks, marching around mountains, getting lured into marshlands, etc.  I especially was intrigued when a local force used superior knowledge of the local terrain to defeat a superior, invading force. 

This video shows the geography of the Crimean Peninsula through of the Russian occupation of the peninsula.  Before 2014, the land was controlled by Ukraine and Russia has controlled and annexed the land.  The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was a continued expansion of these territorial ambitions, and if Ukraine’s full goals are to be achieved, reclaiming the Crimean Peninsula would be an final step.  The naval stronghold of Sevastapol, the tiny narrow neck of land, the swampy lagoons, and the Black Sea are all discussed in this video looking at the Russian advantages in maintaining control and Ukraine’s difficulties in trying to recapture this territory.   

Tags: Russia, Ukraine, geopolitics, political.

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Ukraine gets the upper hand

In February of 2022, I could not imagine a scenario where Ukraine, without any other military allies, would be able to repel a Russian invasion, much less start winning back some territory that they lost. True, many got it wrong, but what did we not see? I overestimated the competency of the Russian military and assumed greater demographic resources would be sufficient to explain the result of the conflict. More importantly though, I underestimated the galvanizing force that nationalism would have on a country under attack. If Ukraine wasn’t the most cohesive ethnic group with a cohesive national identity, this Russian invasion strengthened the cultural cohesion and the political identity to successfully fight back. The video below is a good explanation of the changes in the war from 2021 to Sept. 2022.

SOURCE: Vox on Youtube

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Donbas: The heart of the Russian/Ukranian war

This map can go a long way towards explaining what the Donbas region is, and why it is seen as strategically important to both Russia and Ukraine. This BBC article makes a strong argument that capturing all of the Donbas region would now be Putin’s primary objective. What “winning” this war has meant for Russia has changed; especially now given that a quick takeover of the entire country of Ukraine is impossible. I see 4 reasons why Ukraine has done better in the first month of this war than some expected: 1) the government did not collapse under pressure, 2) the Ukrainian people took up the cause with patriotic fervor, 3) the Russian military was not the power that many expected, and 4) the international sanctions were more impactful in an integrated, global 21st century economy than they would have been just 50 years ago. At the start of the war Russia had (IMHO) much grander ambitions on what would have constituted a victory, but now, control of the entire Donbas region is still the prize that they’ve coveted and would represent an new idea victory. SOURCE: BBC

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, conflict.

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Conflict in Armenia and Azerbaijan

“Armenia’s defence ministry said Azeri forces had launched an attack five minutes after the truce had been due to come into effect, with ethnic Armenian forces responding. Azeri forces were also bombarding a town, the defence ministry said.” SOURCE: BBC

There are many simmering conflicts around the world that are not fully resolved but that can intensify very quickly because the underlying issues remain tense even in periods of relative calm. The Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict centers around the ethnic Armenian enclave (Nargorno Karabakh) inside Azerbaijan. To make things more complicated, there is an exclave of Azerbaijan (Nakhchivan) to the west of Armenia.

There have been ethnic/political tensions is this region for generations, but the collapse of the Soviet Union changed the status quo, and there was a cease-fire called in 1994, but that has dissolved in the last few weeks. Now, Turkey and Russia are both seeking to resolve the dispute (or carry out their regional ambitions if you like to approach this more cynically). This shows how a border conflict between two countries can quickly become a broader that can polarize the international community as countries “pick sides” in the conflict. While this is a distressing bit of news for global security and peace, this is a excellent case study to explore many political geographic topics; enclaves, exclaves, borders, sovereignty, devolution, international conflict, etc..

Al Jazeera (10/14)-Updates: Turkey denies accusations, Russia calls for truce

*BBC-Reports of fresh shelling dent ceasefire hopes

*VOX-The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, explained

*The Sunday Times-Azerbaijan and Armenia accuse each other of breaking ceasefire

*The Jacobin Magazine-What’s Really Driving the Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict

GeoEd Tags: Armenia, Azerbaijan, war, borders, political.

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A History Of Sudan’s Civil Wars & Conflict

This is the story of how Sudan became two nations, and of an ongoing conflict in the Nuba Mountains that has changed the lives of millions of people. In parts 2–5 of our VR series, We Who Remain, follow the lives of four people living through the war: http://ajplus.co/nuba360. Produced in partnership with Nuba Reports and Emblematic Group.

Source: www.youtube.com

The first video in this 5-part video is a bit slow, but provides the historical and geographic context needed to understand the developmental, ethnic, and political issues that remain so difficult to resolve.  The Subsequent four videos provide a more human, personal glimpse into facets of the conflict. 

 

Tags: Sudan, political, ethnicity, Africa, war.

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Syria’s war: Who is fighting and why [Updated]

“After four-plus years of fighting, Syria’s war has killed at least hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions. And, though it started as a civil war, it’s become much more than that. It’s a proxy war that has divided much of the Middle East, and has drawn in both Russia and the United States. To understand how Syria got to this place, it helps to start at the beginning and watch it unfold.”

Source: www.youtube.com

Over a year ago I posted a previous version of this video highlighting the complexities behind the Syrian war.  Much has happened since then and this updated version adds more detail and includes a very helpful timeline to show how more internal and external forces became involved in the fighting.  This is an incredibly complicated geopolitical situation because of all the regional and international players involved.  

 

Tags: Syria, war, conflict, political, geopolitics.

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