Map showing the countries bombed by Iran in the days after the death of Khamenei. SOURCE: CNN

In writing this with the assumption that you’ve all seen the headlines about the US/Israeli strikes on Iran that led to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Post of my students are currently asking “now what?” Things are still murky as I’m writing this, but the news often will make no sense without the regional geographic context. Understanding the Sunni/Shia divide is vital to understanding why Iran, after being attacked, bombed at least a dozen countries including many other Muslim countries. They are expending their weapons without an ability to replenish their supplies and facing. They’ve threatened to attack any ship going through the Straits of Hormuz, and which doesn’t mean much if we don’t understand what a choke point is, and why their are economic vital, and geopolitically strategic. Fellow Gulf countries like Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are seeing this as a closure as a maritime crisis that will profoundly economically damage them.

The economic and political importance of a choke point is highlighted in a crisis that closes it. SOURCE: CNBC

Nine U.S. bases in the Middle East have been bombed in drone attacks and while it is hard to assess in “the fog of war,” satellite imagery shows us the extent of the damage. Of course this has many domestic ramifications in the United States that are significant, but as a geographic analysis of this situation pulls the focus more to Middle Eastern impacts, starting with the question,
“who will be in charge of Iran two months from now?” There are many possibilities ranging from the mullahs staying in charge, to the son of the Shah (Rezi Pahlavi) being installed in the future. Prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution that installed the Ruhollah Khomeini. The current regime has been the largest state sponsor of terror and has been the greatest source of regional destabilization. They’ve funded Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and various other Shi’ite militia groups in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere.

The ABC video here is a good “need to know” primer for March 4, 2026…but the details will fade in time.

The news of the next few month will shape the coming decades and the possibilities are still wide open. The Caspian Report has produced good geopolitical analysis over the years, so this is their latest video (below)

TAGS: Middle East, Iran, political, war.