Right now, the conventional wisdom says that there are just nine states that might go either way on Nov. 6th.

Not all votes are created equally; votes in these 9 key states have a greater likelihood of impacting the actual outcome of the Presidential election.  If we assume that the other states vote as anticipated, and that each candidate has an equal opportunity in the remaining 9 states (yes, these are a major assumptions, but work with me), than President Obama has a 84% likelihood of winning in the 512 possible permuations.  Geographer Andy Baker has created a video that provides a solid non-partisan analysis of the political geography of these states (and other) states.

Tags: political, unit 4 political.

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